Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems

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Contents

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Introduction

The burgeoning field of complex systems science (CSS) provides methods and concepts for tackling complex, non-deterministic problems and has direct application to the interconnected issues and so-called “wicked feedbacks” affecting the management of cities and regions.

Cities and urban systems are undoubtedly complex entities. Understanding a city as a whole, and guiding transitions to more sustainable futures, requires an integration of urban research and engineering knowledge with an appreciation of the complex interactions between urban systems such as transport networks, housing infrastructure, water and energy supply networks and social networks.

Ultimately this research seeks a better understanding of the collective dynamics between urban subsystems and to deepen the intellectual foundation of whole-of-system indicators regarding vulnerability, resilience and sustainability. The CSIRO node of COSnet aims to achieve this by providing a coordinating function for urban research, engineering knowledge and existing research capacity in complex systems.

While the project is strongly associated with CSIRO we are encouraging people from government and university research to be involved. Some topics for consideration:

Network interactions: What are the conflicts or synergies of current and planned future urban water and waste water networks in the context of shifting residential forms and behavioural changes in residential water supply and use?

Multi agent problems: Landscape, planning and transport networks work in combination with regulatory, utility, market and residential actors to determine how a city’s population is housed. There are certainly instances where the influence of planning has been exceeded by that of market forces, sometimes detrimentally so. Can we identify the important boundaries and interactions to manage urban development as much as plan for it? Additionally, how does the system respond to dynamic external drivers, for example, transitions in transport fuel supply?

Emergence: At different spatial and temporal scales, urban (infra)structures such as transport networks and ‘activity centres’ emerge from the complex interplay between many factors including: age structure of the population, housing affordability, planning and the location of industries. There already exists a body of research concerned with the modern evolution of cities. How can we apply this research?

Urban and suburban evolution: Consider what happens when a group of suburbs are redeveloped or gentrified? Over 5 to 10 years there are dynamic changes not only to land use and transport networks but also to the channels of material and energy supply and social networks, along with the feedbacks between these subsystems. The attractor of access to amenity will change or disappear if there are too many people drawn to an area and this can drive development in unexpected directions. Furthermore, there are effects on connected, surrounding suburbs that exist in a network at another spatial scale operating over different timescales. These issues may indeed be repeated at the even larger spatio-temporal scale of inter-city competition.


This site is intended to record discussions, to facilitate interaction and to provide a central resource on urban complexity. To contribute to this site you need to join the ARC Complex Open Systems Network (COSNet) by first going here

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Events

A science meeting part funded by the CDUS project explored the contributions evolutionary economics could make to questions of sustainable development and adaptation. One of the fruits of this meeting is a recently published paper:

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An entrepreneurial model of economic and environmental co-evolution

Jason Potts, John Foster, Anna Straton, Ecological Economics 70 (2010) pp375–383

Abstract: A basic tenet of ecological economics is that economic growth and development are ultimately constrained by environmental carrying capacities. It is from this basis that notions of a sustainable economy and of sustainable economic development emerge to undergird the “standard model” of ecological economics. However, the belief in “hard” environmental constraints may be obscuring the important role of the entrepreneur in the co-evolution of economic and environmental relations, and hence limiting or distorting the analytic focus of ecological economics and the range of policy options that are considered for sustainable economic development. This paper outlines a co-evolutionary model of the dynamics of economic and ecological systems as connected by entrepreneurial behaviour. We then discuss some of the key analytic and policy implications.

The authors would like to acknowledge those who attended for the stimulating discussion that underpinned this work and also direct attention to a new journal that further explores this space: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions



Some other recent publications...

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Ecological Economics Reviews: Agent-Based Modeling in Ecological Economics

Scott Heckbert, Tim Baynes and Andrew Reeson, The Annals of The New York Academy of Sciences Volume 1185, February 2010, pp39-53

(Section of the abstract): Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behaviour change.


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Complexity in Urban Development and Management: Historical Overview and Opportunities

Timothy M. Baynes

Journal of Industrial Ecology Volume 13, Number 2 2009, pp214-227

Abstract: Systems dynamics, cellular automata, agent-based modeling, and network analyses have been used in population, land use, and transport planning models. An overview of complex systems science as applied to urban development is presented, and examples are given of where the problems of housing people and anticipating their movements have been addressed with complex approaches, sometimes in concert with deterministic, large-scale urban models. Planning for cities today has additional environmental and social priorities in common with many topics that concern industrial ecology. The research agenda suggested here is that this, too, can be enriched with complex systems thinking and models to complement the often static assessment of environmental performance and better inform decision processes.

(Please see contact at bottom of page for contact information about these publications)

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Events Archive


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Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications

To aid understanding of complex systems science and its potential applications please have a look at this table of Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications.

With input from participants in this project and other researchers, we would like to expand this table to demonstrate where complex systems thinking has been or could be applied in urban research.

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Discussions

This section links to discussion forums where people are encouraged to contribute essays, opinions, links to research and other material that will engender understanding of complex systems science as applied in the urban context.


Discussions from Kioloa08-Megacities working group

Three Questions & Some Idiosyncratic Answers: Discussion paper for Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop, Canberra, 13-14 May, 2008 by Barry Newell

Other discussions from Workshop 2: Making the Connections: Systems Thinking and Urban Dynamics

Discussions from Workshop 1: Complex Systems Science in the Urban Context

Complexity challenges for urban systems

Case studies

Barriers to uptake and limitation of software tools

Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications

Start a discussion page by clicking here

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References and External Links

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Organizations

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Journals

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Academic/Research Programs

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Articles & Books

General

  • Complex Artificial Environments: Simulation, Cognition and VR in the Study and Planning of Cities by Juval Portugali, Springer, Berlin, 2006, ISBN 10-3-540-25917-1
  • Cities and Complexity by Michael Batty, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2005, ISBN 0-262-02583-3
  • Principles of Urban Structure by Nikos A. Salingaros, Techne Press, Amsterdam, 2005 ISBN90-8594-001-X
  • The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems - An Interdisciplinary Approach, Sergio Albeverio, Denise Andrey, Paolo Giordano and Alberto Vancheri Editors, 2008, Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, NewYork ISBN 9783790819366. This was the result of a workshop held at ETH Zurich in 2004
  • Fractal Cities: A Geometry of Form and Function by Michael Batty and Paul Longley, Academic Press, 1994, ISBN 100124555705
  • Self-Organisation and the City by Juval Portugali, Springer, Berlin, 1999, ISBN 103540654836
  • Envisioning Information by Edward R. Tufte, Graphics Press, 1990, ISBN 100961392118 also by the same author, Visual explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative and The Visual Display of Quantitative Information

Complex Systems Science

Urban Systems

Resilience

  • Panarchy by L. Gunderson and C.S. Holling, Island Press, 2001
  • Resilience Thinking by Brain Walker and David Salt, Island Press, 2006
  • Lee, K. N. (2006), Urban sustainability and the limits of classical environmentalism, Environment and Urbanization; 18(1) 9-22
  • Jannson et al (1999) Linking Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services Appropriated by People: The Case of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. Ecosystems 2(4) 351-366
  • NaturalCapitalism.org - Published by the Rocky Mountain Institute
  • China's Circular Economy Initiative
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Contact:

Tim Baynes
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Ph +61 2 9490 8824
Email : firstname.lastname@csiro.au

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