Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems

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Contents

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Introduction

The burgeoning field of complex systems science (CSS) provides methods and concepts for tackling complex, non-deterministic problems and has direct application to the interconnected issues and so-called “wicked feedbacks” affecting the management of cities and regions.

Cities and urban systems are undoubtedly complex entities. Understanding a city as a whole, and guiding transitions to more sustainable futures, requires an integration of urban research and engineering knowledge with an appreciation of the complex interactions between urban systems such as transport networks, housing infrastructure, water and energy supply networks and social networks.

Ultimately this research seeks a better understanding of the collective dynamics between urban subsystems and to deepen the intellectual foundation of whole-of-system indicators regarding vulnerability, resilience and sustainability. The CSIRO node of COSnet aims to achieve this by providing a coordinating function for urban research, engineering knowledge and existing research capacity in complex systems.

While the project is strongly associated with CSIRO we are encouraging people from government and university research to be involved. Some topics for consideration:

Network interactions: What are the conflicts or synergies of current and planned future urban water and waste water networks in the context of shifting residential forms and behavioural changes in residential water supply and use?

Multi agent problems: Landscape, planning and transport networks work in combination with regulatory, utility, market and residential actors to determine how a city’s population is housed. There are certainly instances where the influence of planning has been exceeded by that of market forces, sometimes detrimentally so. Can we identify the important boundaries and interactions to manage urban development as much as plan for it? Additionally, how does the system respond to dynamic external drivers, for example, transitions in transport fuel supply?

Emergence: At different spatial and temporal scales, urban (infra)structures such as transport networks and ‘activity centres’ emerge from the complex interplay between many factors including: age structure of the population, housing affordability, planning and the location of industries. There already exists a body of research concerned with the modern evolution of cities. How can we apply this research?

Urban and suburban evolution: Consider what happens when a group of suburbs are redeveloped or gentrified? Over 5 to 10 years there are dynamic changes not only to land use and transport networks but also to the channels of material and energy supply and social networks, along with the feedbacks between these subsystems. The attractor of access to amenity will change or disappear if there are too many people drawn to an area and this can drive development in unexpected directions. Furthermore, there are effects on connected, surrounding suburbs that exist in a network at another spatial scale operating over different timescales. These issues may indeed be repeated at the even larger spatio-temporal scale of inter-city competition.


This site is intended to record discussions, to facilitate interaction and to provide a central resource on urban complexity. To contribute to this site you need to join the ARC Complex Open Systems Network (COSNet) by first going here

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Events

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Events History

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Public Lecture and Panel Discussion: Food, Transport and Urban Living

Sydney’s future food supply goes under the microscope in a free public talk to be held at Sydney University on Monday, December 1, at 5:30pm. Can Sydney feed itself AND house itself? Can it afford not to?

The CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship is pleased to host a presentation by international transport, building and food supply expert, Professor John Whitelegg, from Lancaster University in the United Kingdom. According to Professor Whitelegg, Sydney needs to adapt and prepare for rapidly changing global and local conditions that will affect the production and distribution of food.

“We use oil to grow, transport and process food, and to get to the supermarket to buy food – yet with climate change and peak oil, we can’t rely on that fuel forever,” Professor Whitelegg said.

“Meanwhile, projected changes to the climate are likely to effect agricultural yields – yet our cities keep sprawling into their food bowls, and land is being used to grow fuel for cars.”

Professor Whitelegg’s talk will be followed by a panel session featuring policy makers and researchers from the NSW Government, Penrith City Council and CSIRO.

What: Public Talk – Future Food Supply in the Sydney Basin – featuring Professor John Whitelegg, David Mason (NSW DPI), Wayne Mitchell and Monique Desmarchelier from Penrith City Council and Tim Baynes (CSIRO)

When: 5pm for a 5:30pm start, until 7:30pm, Monday, December 1, 2008

Where: Sydney University, Old Geology Lecture Theatre

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Sustainable Consumption in Climate Adapted Urban Developments Project

CSIRO researchers are for the first time modelling the links between carbon emissions, energy consumption and human behaviour in urban environments in CSIRO's Climate Adaptation Flagship. The new project called Sustainable Consumption in Climate Adapted Urban Developments will provide a computational approach for understanding the links, and designing better built environments. Researchers will take a 'multi-agent' modelling approach that incorporates built environment design, carbon emissions and empirical social research, to underpin design principles that will encourage behaviour change through sustainable urban development.

This systematic approach, adapted from the field of computational sociology, will be used to model and simulate the links between human activity at various scales: individuals, social groups, and urban developments. A three-dimensional virtual environment developed through this process will enable 'what if' analyses on a range of urban consumption choices, and the impact of those choices on changing greenhouse gas emissions under different climate change scenarios. The website for the project has just been launched here

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Mind Games At Kioloa 2008

From the 11-14 November 2008 COSNet organised a Complex Systems Early Career Researcher workshop entitled "Mind Games at Kioloa". Post-grads, post-docs and other enthusiastic ECR types were encouraged to get involved, add their expertise to the mix, and then take away some new contacts, new ideas and maybe new collaborations.

The emphasis was partly on seminars presented by keynote speakers, and partly research group work. The theme of the workshop was "real world problems, complex system solutions" and a wiki site was established with a couple of working groups getting the ball rolling early on some topics: exchanging ideas and background material. See here: Mind Games @ Kioloa 2008 - Working Groups

The idea was to provide a time and a place where early career researchers who are interested in or actively use complex systems, could come together find out about each others' work and maybe solve one or two of the World's problems. Among the problems proposed for work at Kioloa are: Ocean acidification, The drug problem, Transgenic humanoids, The new energy system, Beyond emissions reductions, Global terrorism, and 'The internet of the world'. Visit the Mind Games @ Kioloa 2008 - Problem Set to have a closer look and check out the Kioloa08-Megacities working group page. Suggestions and new ideas for working problems are welcome and the wiki is a great tool to exchange these ideas.

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Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications

To aid understanding of complex systems science and its potential applications please have a look at this table of Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications.

With input from participants in this project and other researchers, we would like to expand this table to demonstrate where complex systems thinking has been or could be applied in urban research.

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Discussions

This section links to discussion forums where people are encouraged to contribute essays, opinions, links to research and other material that will engender understanding of complex systems science as applied in the urban context.

Three Questions & Some Idiosyncratic Answers: Discussion paper for Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop, Canberra, 13-14 May, 2008 by Barry Newell

Complexity challenges for urban systems

Case studies

Barriers to uptake and limitation of software tools

Comparison of Complex Systems Approaches and Applications

Start a discussion page by clicking here

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References and External Links

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Organizations

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Journals

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Academic/Research Programs

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Articles & Books

General

  • Cities and Complexity by Michael Batty, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2005, ISBN 0-262-02583-3
  • Principles of Urban Structure by Nikos A. Salingaros, Techne Press, Amsterdam, 2005 ISBN90-8594-001-X
  • The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems - An Interdisciplinary Approach, Sergio Albeverio, Denise Andrey, Paolo Giordano and Alberto Vancheri Editors, 2008, Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, NewYork ISBN 9783790819366
  • Self-Organisation and the City by Juval Portugali, Springer, Berlin, 1999, ISBN 103540654836
  • Envisioning Information by Edward R. Tufte, Graphics Press, 1990, ISBN 100961392118 also by the same author, Visual explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative and The Visual Display of Quantitative Information

Complex Systems Science

Urban Systems

Resilience

  • Panarchy by L. Gunderson and C.S. Holling, Island Press, 2001
  • Resilience Thinking by Brain Walker and David Salt, Island Press, 2006
  • Lee, K. N. (2006), Urban sustainability and the limits of classical environmentalism, Environment and Urbanization; 18(1) 9-22
  • Jannson et al (1999) Linking Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services Appropriated by People: The Case of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. Ecosystems 2(4) 351-366
  • NaturalCapitalism.org - Published by the Rocky Mountain Institute
  • China's Circular Economy Initiative
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Contact:

Tim Baynes
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Ph +61 2 9490 8824
Email : firstname.lastname@csiro.au

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